Today (May 15)Abugarcia6500striperCOMEX gold broke through the $2360 / oz mark in intraday trading, and A-share gold also ushered in a wave of quotations. As of press release, gold stocks accounted for seven of the top 10 stocks in the China Nonferrous Metals Index, of which CICC gold rose more than 5 per cent, Yintai gold, Shandong gold, Hunan gold, Sichuan gold, Chifeng gold and other stocks also rose sharply.

On the capital side, as of the press release, the non-ferrous metals plate received a net inflow of more than 900 million yuan, ranking among the 31 emergency industries TOP3.

ETF (159876), the leading non-ferrous metals industry leader, turned red tenaciously in early trading. At one point, the market price rose more than 0.8%, then was dragged by the market, fell below the surface, and is now slightly down 0.35%.

Signs of reversal in the non-ferrous metals industry have emerged, and the performance inflection point is approaching. Galaxy Securities pointed out that the prices of non-ferrous metals in commodities such as gold, copper, zinc and tin appeared in March and April.Abugarcia6500striperA leaping rise will lead to a significant rise in the average price of non-ferrous metals and the hub of non-ferrous metals enterprises in the second quarter, and the A-share non-ferrous metals industry is expected to usher in a performance inflection point in the second quarter of 2024. In the context of the global manufacturing recovery and the Fed's expected interest rate cut trading, gold, copper, aluminum, tin and other sub-sectors that have shown an upward trend in performance are expected to be released more flexibly in the second quarter, supported by a sharp rise in the metal price center.

Yongxing Securities said that in terms of liquidity, the overall long-term view of the market's expectations of interest rate cuts is basically maintained, the US dollar may continue to fluctuate, and commodity prices are expected to benefit in the medium to long term; fundamentals, the supply side continues to be disrupted at present, such as the decline in copper production in Chile compared with the same period last year, electrolytic aluminum limited by insufficient power supply and production reduction, etc.; on the demand side, demand is expected to improve after the implementation of policies such as ultra-long-term treasury bonds in the future.

According to public data, according to the caliber of Shenwan's third-tier industry, copper, aluminum and gold are the top three major industries in the CSI non-ferrous metals index tracked by non-ferrous leader ETF (159876), accounting for 24% respectively.Abugarcia6500striper.1%, 16.7%, 14Abugarcia6500striper.7%, accounting for more than 50%. It is expected to benefit from the rally in gold, as well as from the commodity rally cycle.

Sources of data and charts: Wind, Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, Warburg Fund, etc.

Note: the rise and fall of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index in the past five complete years is: 2019, 24.48%; 2020, 35.84%; 2021, 35.89%; 2022,-19.22%; 2023,-10.43%.

Risk tip: non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) passively track the CSI non-ferrous metals index (930708.CSI), the index base date is 2013.12.31, the release date is 2015.7.13, the composition of index stocks is timely adjusted according to the rules of the index, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. In this article, the index stocks are only shown, and the individual stocks are not described as any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the position information and trading trends of any fund under the manager. The risk level of the fund assessed by the fund manager is R3-medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors, the appropriate matching opinions should be based on the sales organization. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any point of view, analysis and forecast in this article does not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor is it liable for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. Fund investment is risky, the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by fund managers does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance, so fund investment should be cautious.