Special topic: heavy weight! After 10 years! The State Council issued another guiding document on the capital market.

Source: Huaxia Times

Reporter Shuai Kecong Chen Feng reporting from Beijing

On April 12, 2024, the State Council issued "on strengthening Supervision, guarding against risks and promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market"PhcaloocancomSome opinions ", which consists of nine parts, is called the new" national nine articles "of the capital market. This is also the capital market guidance document issued by the State Council again 10 years after the two National Nine articles in 2004 and 2014.

Looking back in history, after the first two releases of the "National Nine articles", the A-share market has ushered in a sharp rise, and gradually ushered in a magnificent bull market, with the Prev reaching 6124 points and 5178 points respectively. After the release of the new "National Nine articles", the strength of A-shares has been highly concerned, and institutions have issued reports for analysis and interpretation. Citic Construction Investment Securities has a clear view that the "national nine articles" may help the market out of the slow cow.

Yang Delong, chief economist of the Qianhai Open Source Fund, told the Huaxia Times that the current market is back near 3000 points again, and investor confidence is still insufficient, and the new "National Nine articles" has put forward specific measures from various aspects. conducive to the construction of a long-term and healthy development of the capital market, so as to boost the medium-and long-term performance of the capital market.

Make the expectations of market participants clearer.

Public information shows that in the previous two "National Nine articles", the State Council issued "some opinions of the State Council on promoting the Reform, opening up and stable Development of the Capital Market" on January 31, 2004, and "some opinions on further promoting the healthy Development of the Capital Market" on May 9, 2014.

"reviewing the introduction of the 'National Nine articles' of the capital market in the past two times, they are both in the critical period of the transformation and development of the domestic economy. The introduction of the 'National Nine articles' focuses on promoting the high-quality development of the capital market, which is an important part of the current high-quality development of the domestic economy and society, which fully reflects that the current senior management attaches great importance to the work of the capital market." Ping an Securities Research News believes that.

Hu Guopeng and Yuan Daoyu, strategists at Guohai Securities, said in the research report that the 2004 "National Nine articles" opened the curtain of non-tradable share structure reform, while the "New National Nine articles" in 2014 opened a new era of registration system reform. From the perspective of the tone of the document, the focus of the 2004 and 2014 documents is to improve the construction of the capital market system, and the tone of this document emphasizes the "development of the capital market in standardization". From the perspective of key words, "strict rules" and "strengthening supervision" run through the full text, which means that a high standard requires the healthy development of the capital market will be the main theme of the policy in the next stage.

Wu Kaida, chief strategic analyst and director of the Policy Research Institute of Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, said that the new "National Nine articles" is carried out from nine aspects, such as listing access, supervision of listed companies, delisting supervision, employment supervision, and trading supervision. it includes a wide range of areas and tough language. In terms of the overall requirements, it is proposed that we must comprehensively strengthen supervision, effectively prevent and defuse risks, set the tone firmly and be strict, so as to ensure that supervision is "tusk with thorns" and angular.PhcaloocancomIn the next five years, the overall framework for the high-quality development of the capital market will be basically formed.

"this new 'National Nine articles' is the new 'policy outline' of the capital market, which points out the direction for the institutional construction and policy consolidation of the capital market, and makes the expectations of market participants clearer." Xu Kang, head of financial research and chief analyst of Huachuang Securities, believes that.

He said in the research newspaper that historically, the publication of the "National Nine articles" has provided a clear train of thought for solving the problem of the development of the capital market. The background of the promulgation of the "National Nine articles" in 2004 is that many problems were caused by the non-tradable shares before the non-tradable share structure reform and the market was in the doldrums for a long time. In 2014, the "National Nine articles" was put forward under the background of the lack of protection of medium and small investors, the need to strengthen investor protection, market fairness and enhance the inherent stability of the market. All previous national nine articles have had a far-reaching impact on the long-term development of the capital market.

Xu Kang believes that the new "National Nine articles" clearly proposes to strengthen the building of the rule of law in the capital market and greatly increase the cost of violation of laws and regulations, and it is expected that the problem of too low illegal costs in the market in the past is expected to be improved, which will help investors build long-term confidence, eliminate "market chaos" and help build a benign market ecology.

Clean up the mess and reshape the value

Looking forward to the future, institutions generally believe that the new "National Nine articles" will boost market confidence and promote A-shares to strengthen and stabilize.

Yang Delong said that the new "National Nine articles" takes a variety of measures to improve the quality of listed companies, promote the high-quality development of the capital market, strengthen the construction of the rule of law in the capital market, and greatly increase the cost of violation of laws and regulations. Strengthening the joint crackdown on securities and futures crimes will help boost investors' confidence and have a positive impact on the capital market.

He believes that from the valuation point of view, the current market is still in a position near the historical bottom, and some high-quality companies are seriously oversold. Good stocks and good funds have relatively high allocation value, it is suggested that investors should maintain confidence and patience and patiently wait for the arrival of the market.

Wu Kaida said that the "National Nine articles" in 2004 and 2014 were released during the stock market downturn and played a leading role in the development of the capital market in the coming period of time, and the A-share market also entered a bull market. The landing of the new "National Nine articles" and the subsequent supporting rules will help the capital market to clean up chaos, reshape value, and enhance the inherent stability of the capital market, and the quality of listed companies is expected to be further improved, the capital structure is more reasonable, and the basic system is more perfect. Market regulation mechanism is more effective, professional services are more high-quality, supervision and law enforcement are more stringent, and A shares can better support the real economy and return investors.

Hu Yuwei and Feng Tianze, policy analysts of CITIC Construction Investment Securities, said in the research newspaper that the highlight of the "National Nine articles" policy is to coordinate and promote the policy at the central level, and the second is to significantly increase the proportion of illegal costs and equity funds. the third is to make efforts in the areas of listing, delisting and dividends; the fourth is to improve the relevant evaluation criteria.

They believe that the third "National Nine articles" is a historical inheritance of the first two times and a new instruction to the current situation of the capital market. The A-share market has risen sharply after the first two "National Nine articles" have been released, and this "National Nine articles" may help the market out of slow cattle.

Li Lifeng, chief strategist at West China Securities, believes that the new "National Nine articles" is conducive to the optimization of the capital market environment in the medium to long term, strengthen corporate governance and corporate quality of listed companies, and better consolidate the value foundation of the A-share market and improve the long-term rate of return of the capital market. Benefiting from the dividend reform, enterprises with good quality, abundant cash flow and dominant dividends will receive more extensive and more sustained market attention. At the same time, we should be on guard against the delisting risks of some enterprises, especially those with serious financial losses and major risks of violation of laws and regulations.

"with long-term reform and development, the rate of return on the capital market is expected to improve over a long period of time." Ping an Securities said that looking forward to the follow-up, the high-quality development of China's capital market is accelerating, and the deployment and implementation of policies will continue to be pushed forward. on the one hand, we will improve the investment quality of listed companies from the aspects of market access, withdrawal, and continuous supervision. on the other hand, we will increase regulatory reform at the capital and transaction level, increase medium-and long-term capital entry into the market, strengthen transaction supervision, and enhance the inherent stability of the capital market.

The agency believes that structurally, there are three main lines that can be paid attention to in the medium and long term: first, to benefit from dividend reform and dividend strategies with stable returns, and to focus on sectors and enterprises with dominant dividend levels (coal / bank / petrochemical) or dividends that have room for improvement; second, to benefit from the differentiation of listed companies with sound operation and good governance under the policy of improving the quality of listed companies. Third, the linkage of new quality productivity development, benefiting from the expected growth of the digital economy TMT, advanced manufacturing and biomedicine.

Responsible Editor: Ma Xiaochao, Editor-in-Chief: Xia Shencha