Source Gangtise to invest in research

-- Manufacturing | Technology (8)--

[bus] analysts said that the total export volume of passenger cars from January to April 2024 reached 1.FreehundredhandvideopokerChina exported more than 2400 passenger cars in the Asian market in April, an increase of more than 60 percent over the same period last year, with high demand in the Middle East and CIS countries. In April, China exported 580 passenger cars in the Russian market, an increase of more than 80% over the same period last year. From January to April, the overall export volume of new energy buses reached 1941, accounting for about 14.5% of the total exports. It is estimated that the overall demand for overseas passenger cars in 2024 will be about 240000.FreehundredhandvideopokerThe permeability is gradually increasing.

Fixed asset investment in China Railway rose 9.9% year-on-year from January to March 2024, with double-digit year-on-year growth in March, an all-time high for monthly growth, according to analysts. In May, the single purchase amount of EMU exceeded the annual purchase amount of 2023, which was the highest in history. High-speed rail lines account for about 60% of the new railway mileage in 2023, and the proportion of new high-speed rail lines is expected to rise to more than 80% in 2024, leading to an increase in the cost of railway unit mileage. At present, the density of railway turnouts in China is 1.56 groups per kilometer, and the average price of a single set of turnouts is about 250000 yuan. With the continuous increase in the density of the railway network, it is expected that the density of turnouts will increase to 1.68 per kilometer in 2025.

[storage] experts said that in 2024, the farming rate of the storage industry will continue to rise to the end of the year, with a Q1 rate of 700.75%, and an estimated Q2 rate of 750.81%. The Q3 rate is 81million, 89%, and the highest rate of Q4 is close to 90%. The average increase in the overall price of Q2 DRAM is between 1520% and 20%, of which the DRAM of servers and PC is about 20%. HBM's capacity continues to expand, with industry growth expected to reach 300 per cent in 2024 and conservatively estimated to grow by 100 per cent in 2025.

[semiconductor equipment] analysts say the global semiconductor equipment market is about $100 billion in 2023, down 6.1 per cent from a year earlier. The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach US $124 billion in 2025, when Chinese mainland will become the world's largest semiconductor equipment market, accounting for about 30 per cent.

[switch] experts say that the investment of the three major domestic Internet companies in switches is expected to increase by 1013% in 2024 compared with the same period last year. The investment in switches is about 1000million in 2023, and is expected to reach 1100~1150million in 2024. The investment of foreign Internet companies in switches has increased more significantly. The investment in switches is about 4800million in 2023, and it is expected to reach 5400million in 2024, with a growth rate of 2527%.

[low-altitude economy] experts say that assuming that the BOM cost of an aircraft is about $2 million, the value of navigation equipment accounts for about 50.7 per cent. The new market for navigation systems in the low-altitude navigation market is expected to reach millions of dollars, with communications navigation systems accounting for about 7 per cent of aircraft BOM costs and ground takeoffs and landings accounting for about 10 per cent.

[air transport] analysts said that during the May Day period in 2024, air passenger flow increased by 8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 20% growth. At the same time, during the May Day period in 2024, ticket prices decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a significant increase in the domestic market wide-body ASK compared with 2019, and supply and demand are still under pressure. Due to the relatively slow recovery of international routes, especially intercontinental routes, airlines have increased a considerable number of wide-body aircraft to the domestic market. It is expected that with the further resumption of international routes, especially intercontinental routes, as well as the new point of departure, the pressure on wide-body aircraft in China will be gradually alleviated.

[furniture] analysts said 2022H2~2023Q4 Home Depot and Lloyd's furniture inventory levels continued to decline, to 2023Q4 inventory levels have returned to 2021 levels, the current Home Depot and Lloyd's inventory levels have returned to healthier levels. The export orders of Chinese furniture companies began to resume positive year-on-year growth from November 2023 to April 2024, mainly due to overseas furniture retailers going to the warehouse, and the demand for replenishment began to release. Us furniture sales figures have continued to decline since 2024, but US home sales data have improved significantly month-on-month. If interest rates are cut in the United States in the future, home sales pick up and furniture terminal sales improve, furniture export orders are expected to grow further. In addition, the cost side of furniture companies has not changed much since 2024.

-- consumption | Medical and health care (1)--

[neurosurgery] experts say the epidemic and anti-corruption in 2023 have a great impact on the number of neurosurgical operations, but the number of operations has increased rapidly since August 2023, especially after the Lunar New year in 2024. With the intensification of aging, the number of operations for senile diseases and tumors is increasing, and the overall growth trend is improving. At present, the average annual growth rate of neurosurgical craniotomy in China is about 40.6%.

-- Materials | Energy (6)

[antimony] analysts say antimony demand in the photovoltaic industry accounts for about 23% in 2023 and is expected to be 2530% in 2024, while demand in the flame retardant industry is relatively stable. On the supply side, domestic antimony production is gradually declining, and it is expected that the industry supply gap will continue to expand in 2024-2025.

[ethylene] according to analysts, global ethylene production capacity in 2022 was 218 million tons, an increase of 5 percent over the same period last year. Asia's share of global production capacity increased from 28 percent in 2005 to 40 percent in 2022. U.S. production capacity increased from 29.39 million tons in 2016 to 40.33 million tons in 2020, and only 4.4 million tons have been put into production so far in 2022. It is estimated that US ethylene production capacity will increase by only 8.94% in 2030 compared with 2023, which is significantly slower than that in 2023. In the later period, ethylene production capacity in the Middle East may remain at 35 million tons. China's ethylene production capacity is 52.167 million tons in 2023 and is expected to reach 91.647 million tons in 2030, an increase of about 80 per cent over 2023 and accounting for 58 per cent of the world's new production capacity.

[gold] analysts say the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates one or two times in 2024, or start on Q3. According to historical deductions, the price of gold was on an upward trend one to three months before the Fed cut interest rates. The high point of gold price averaged 11 days ahead of the day of the rate cut, with an average increase of 8%. Gold price is expected to exceed 2500 US dollars / ounce before the rate cut.

[composite copper foil] analysts said that the trend of composite copper foil to partially replace traditional copper foil is relatively clear. The recent performance of composite copper foil is better, mainly due to the rapid rise in copper futures prices, which have risen by about 20% since March 2024. It is expected that the composite copper foil will show cost advantage in 2024, so as to realize the landing and promotion of industrialization.

[Crude Oil] Analysts said that on the supply side, OPEC is expected to increase production cuts in June, and the crude oil production capacity of four countries, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia and United Arab Emirates, has a high probability of falling. The current production capacity of the United States is probably maintained at 13.1 million barrels per day, and the number of crude oil rigs in the United States continued to decline in May. On the demand side, the end of May is the peak season for travel in the United States. Commercial crude oil inventories in the United States dropped from 461 million barrels on April 26 to 451.7 million barrels on May 10. The operating rate of U.S. refineries increased from 87.5% on April 26 to 90.4% on May 10. Oil prices are expected to rise in June amid OPEC production cuts and improving U.S. demand.

[MDI] Analysts said that BASF Shanghai's 240,000 tons of MDI mother liquor has been shut down for maintenance in mid-May 2024, with a cycle of 30 days; BASF's South Korea base's 250,000 tons of MDI may be shut down for about 15 days due to unexpected reasons; Wanhua Ningbo base 400,000 tons of MDI will be shut down for maintenance recently for a period of 45 days; Wanhua Yantai base 1.1 million tons of MDI will be shut down in July for a period of about 60 days. In May, the supply of MDI from manufacturers was tight, social inventories were low, and traders 'inventories were between 20 and 100 tons. It is expected that downstream demand will improve from June to July, and market prices will continue to rise.

--Finance| Infrastructure (2 companies)--

[Real Estate-Nanjing] Experts said that Nanjing's "trade-in" is currently making good progress, with more than 4000 online and offline customer visits. As of May 20, there are about 800 groups of customers who have paid a deposit of 50,000 yuan, of which more than 700 groups have already locked in the new houses they want, and the asset evaluation prices of the first batch of 53 owners 'old houses have been released. At present, among the 13 buildings of Anju Construction Group, the most sought after and popular units are mainly concentrated in 120 - 180 square meters, with a total price of about 4 - 8 million yuan. The areas are mainly concentrated in Jianye District, Qixia District and Qinhuai District.

[Real Estate-Hangzhou] Experts said that the average weekly visitor volume for mainstream projects in Hangzhou last week was about 160 groups, an increase of 45 groups compared with the previous week and an increase of 50 groups compared with the weekly average in April. Last week, the average subscription volume of a single new house in Hangzhou was about 6.44 units, up 64% from the previous week and 19% from the weekly average in April. Last week's data situation was the same as that of the May Day Golden Week, and the overall visit and subscription data improved significantly, showing a clear positive signal compared with April.