Newsletter summary

Under the influence of the fluctuation of demand in the international market, the price of American cotton is weak and the domestic supply is abundant. After September, the freight policy is expected to put pressure on cotton prices and pay attention to the trends of international trade. Brazil's cotton output in the new year is expected to increase by 14.Wptpokeronlinefree.8%. The progress of domestic cotton processing has been accelerated, and the sales rate has declined compared with the same period last year. CF2409 futures fell 1.Wptpokeronlinefree.78% to 14920 yuan / ton. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton widened to 1746 yuan per ton.

Text of news flash

[the sowing of American cotton is blocked, and the fluctuation of cotton futures price increases]

Recently, there are too many areas in the southeastern United States.WptpokeronlinefreeThe impact of precipitation on American cotton sowing continues, and the market pays attention to the repeated fluctuations on the demand side. Under the background of smooth sowing, American cotton disk shows a weak operation trend.

On the domestic side, the total cotton supply remains adequate, mainland cotton stocks are on the high side, while imported cotton stocks show signs of peaking. American cotton weekly shipments rebounded month-on-month, but unshipped orders are still on the high side compared with the same period last year. With the widening of the price difference between internal and external cotton, the transaction situation of cotton at home and abroad has improved, but it is still subject to high port inventory.

In view of the cotton freight reduction policy in Xinjiang after September, the market is generally expected to form pressure on cotton prices in the far moon. In the field of international trade, the restrictions on Xinjiang cotton in Europe and the United States have not yet been lifted, and investors need to pay attention to whether the Red Sea crisis has led to the return of European orders to China and the start of the replenishment cycle in the United States.

The weather in Xinjiang cotton area is good as a whole, and there is still plenty of time for replanting and replanting, and the impact on cotton growth is expected to be relatively limited. From the point of view of the supply side, the estimated cotton planting area of China Cotton Reserve has a limited decline, and the market speculation space may be insufficient. In terms of demand, downstream demand is lower than expected, cotton sales are still low compared with the same period last year, spinning operation rate has dropped slightly, yarn continues to accumulate stock, raw material rigid demand replenishment is the main, textile opening rate has declined, and orders have also begun to decrease.

With the gradual cashing and digestion of bad, the theme of market shorting is insufficient. Before the risk of weather speculation, investors can hold short orders.WptpokeronlinefreeIf there is weather hype, you should pay attention to stop the profit in time.

[cotton futures prices fall, spot prices fluctuate]

As of the close, cotton futures CF2409 contract fell 1.78% to 14920 yuan / ton, position increased by 27014 hands.

According to the data on May 14, the price of American cotton M1-1xing8 fell 517yuan to Hong Kong at 14801 yuan / ton, the average price of domestic 3128B lint fell 2011yuan to 16030 yuan / ton, the national price of 32s pure cotton ring spinning fell 210yuan to 23170 yuan / ton, and spinning profit increased 11.1yuan to 537yuan / ton. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton widened by 316 yuan to 1746 yuan per ton.

[Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase, domestic cotton sales rate is lower than the same period last year]

According to the latest figures from Brazilian state commodity supply company (Conab), cotton production in Brazil in 2023x24 is estimated to be 3.6435 million tons, an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year. The planting area is estimated to be 1.9419 million hectares, an increase of 16.7 percent over the same period last year. The per unit yield is estimated to be 1876 kg / ha, down 1.6 per cent from the same period last year.

According to the data of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of May 11, 2024, the national lint processing rate was 99.9%, and the sales rate was 71.9%, down 14% from the same period last year. According to the estimated domestic cotton output of 5.903 million tons, a total of 5.903 million tons of seed cotton was sold, a decrease of 811000 tons over the same period last year; a total of 5.896 million tons of processed lint, a decrease of 788000 tons over the same period last year; and a cumulative sales of 4.246 million tons, compared with 5.772 million tons in the same period last year.

The USDA reported that net upland cotton export sales in the week ended May 3 were 254000 bales, compared with 97000 bales the previous week, and 159000 bales, compared with 34000 bales the previous week. The United States sold 119000 bales of upland cotton to China in 2023 and 2024, compared with 15000 bales the week before, and 2000 bales in 2024, compared with 2000 bales the week before.

According to Mysteel, total commercial stocks of cotton stood at 3.5553 million tons as of May 10, down 134100 tons from last week. Among them, the stock of commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 2.4035 million tons, a decrease of 133200 tons compared with the previous week, while that in the inland area was 575800 tons, an increase of 7100 tons compared with the previous week.

In addition, according to Mysteel research, as of May 9, cotton imports from the main port inventory fell 1% month-on-week, the total inventory of 576000 tons. Among them, the inventory of imported cotton in Qingdao and Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong area is about 486000 tons, down 0.8% from the previous week and 96% higher than the same period last year; the inventory of imported cotton in Zhangjiagang port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu area is about 49000 tons, and that in other ports is about 41000 tons.

In the textile industry, as of the week ended May 11, the yarn inventory days of yarn mills were 27.5 days, an increase of 1. 5 days compared with the previous week.