Newsletter summary

The price of sugar on the outer disk fell sharply in April, dragging down Zheng sugar futures up first and then down. There is a global sugar glut and the sugar price range is expected to fluctuate, focusing on Brazilian sugar production. Industrial inventories in the domestic sugar market reached a peak, but consumption share rose in May, and sugar sales are expected to pick up. Risk tips include macro risks, state reserve policies, domestic consumption and output estimates.

Text of news flash

[the inventory of the domestic sugar market is high, and consumption is expected to rise after May Day] the price of sugar on the outer disk fell sharply in April, and the price of domestic Zheng sugar could not be spared. The futures contract price of Zheng Tang's main 2409 futures contract went up at first and then fell.BestlivebaccaratThe trend reached a relative low of 6163 yuan / ton. Although the sharp drop in sugar prices on the outer disk has dragged down the domestic sugar market, the slowdown in sugar production and sales and the rebound in inventories are still the main reasons. As of April 25, 2024, the monthly decline was more than 3%.Bestlivebaccarat. 0%. In terms of future outlook, sugar production in India and Thailand exceeded expectations, and improved supply prospects put pressure on raw sugar. Brazil's new crushing season has begun, and the price of raw sugar lacks strong support. The focus of the market has turned to the sugar supply in the 2024 season, and various agencies have begun to estimate the global sugar supply and demand in the season. At present, it is predicted that the global sugar supply and demand is still in a state of surplus, and the surplus value is still rising. Investors should focus on the crushing progress and production estimates of Brazil's sugar-producing countries. In the domestic sugar market, the spot price of sugar in this crushing season is mainly down, mainly affected by the slowdown in production and marketing and the rise of industrial inventory to the annual peak. Sugar industry inventory has reached its peak this year, and the current industrial inventory is higher than in the same period last year. In May, the domestic sugar market will basically enter the pure sales period, with imports of only 10,000 tons in March, and the import supply will be greatly reduced, which will help to increase the consumption share of domestic sugar. With the increase in marriage matters after the May Day holiday, the consumption of sugar in the soft drinks and sugar products market will increase, and domestic sugar sales are expected to pick up, which is good for the sugar market. Overall, the fundamentals of the sugar market show signs of improvement, sugar prices fall in limited space, it is expected that the future will be dominated by interval shocks. While paying attention to the sugar market, investors should also pay attention to risk tips, including macro risks, state reserve policies, domestic consumption and output estimates and other factors.