Close at noonWsopfreechips2021The main domestic futures contracts are mixed, with the Container Index (European Line) up nearly 7%, urea up more than 4%, alumina and coking coal up more than 3%, and glass and soybean meal up nearly 3%. In terms of decline, SC crude oil fell by more than 4%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by more than 3%, and fuel, apple and asphalt fell by more than 2%.

It is expected that there will be a new round of price increases in mid-May. It is suggested that multi-collection futures 06 and 08 contracts are recommended.

The resumption of the Red Sea may be hopeless this year, as the Israel Defense Forces bombed the Gaza Strip during the May Day holiday, resulting in many casualties. In this context, the Yemeni Houthi announced that they would extend the strike against Israeli-related ships to the Mediterranean region, and stressed that the action would be "effective immediately." Dafei, Herberot, Maersk and other shipowners have raised freight rates in May, and it is expected that there will be a new round of price increases in mid-May. Monday and Tuesday pullback to create entry opportunities again, it is recommended that more 06, 08 contracts. (Hongye Futures)

Bad news superimposed by oil prices fell one after another

The situation in the Middle East continued but did not further expand the escalation, tensions cooled, superimposed by the increase in US crude oil inventories and weaker-than-expected US jobs data triggered demand concerns, the price of crude oil fell one after another, with WTI falling to 78 US dollars per barrel. For now, the market continues to focus on the geopolitical situation, while US economic data add variables to expectations of interest rate cuts, traders weigh the outlook for supply and demand in the oil market and the trend of the dollar, and the decline in oil prices is suspended or paused to sort out. (Zhuochuang Information)

Us crude oil stocks rose sharply more than expected, crude oil fell

On the whole, the attacks by Iran and Israel are more restrained, Iran is trying to play down the conflict between the two sides, and the rest of the parties have not further escalated the conflict. Palestine and Israel launched a new round of negotiations, geopolitical risks are likely to cool down. Of course, it does not rule out the irrational behavior of the Israeli government of Netanyahu, when the conflict escalates, crude oil may rise sharply, and we need to pay close attention to Israel's actions.

At present, Chinese refineries have entered the maintenance season one after another. although the demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States has increased month-on-month, it is still at a low level in the same period over the years. The diesel cracking price gap continued to decline in April, and the gasoline cracking price gap also began to decline during the May Day period. Us crude oil inventories rose sharply more than expected, US non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations in April, the unemployment rate rose, and the market expected the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. Crude oil demand is now under pressure.

In addition, after suspending the repurchase of strategic oil reserves, the United States said that it may release oil strategic reserves to keep oil prices low, and Russian crude oil exports have increased. According to the latest survey during the May Day period, OPEC crude oil production remained stable in April, and the new production reduction plan has not yet been completed. OPEC crude oil production fell 50, 000 b / d to 26.81 million b / d in April. Crude oil faces a pullback. On the supply side, however, OPEC+ promised strict production cuts, and on May 3rd OPEC+ said its members Iraq and Kazakhstan had agreed to make compensatory cuts for the rest of the year.

Us crude oil production is suppressed by capital spending, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are still disrupting markets, Mr Netanyahu has approved ground operations in Rafah, and Houthi forces are still attacking Israeli-linked ships and trying to expand into the Mediterranean region. There are continuous conflicts between Palestine and Israel, it is difficult to negotiate a cease-fire, the room for crude oil pullback is limited, crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and focus on geopolitical risks in the Middle East. (Guantong Futures)