On April 17, international crude oil plummeted by more than 3%. The biggest decline in three months, wiping out all gains this month, falling to a three-week low for three consecutive weeks.

By the close of the day, the price of WTI crude oil futures was down 2%.Crashnitrofueledps5.67 dollars to close at 82 a barrelCrashnitrofueledps5.69 US dollars, down 3.13%, rose 0.17% to 82.83 US dollars per barrel as of press time, while Brent crude futures fell 2.73 US dollars, or 3.03 per cent, to 87.29 US dollars per barrel.

On the one hand, analysts point out that, on the one hand, the market believes that Israel has so far followed the international community's call to "exercise restraint and has not seen any measures to further expand the conflict", and that the risk premium of geopolitical conflict has been reflected in oil prices. traders are turning their attention to market fundamentals.

Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview that oil prices could fall further without the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions.

On the other hand, demand-side concerns outweigh the supply risk impact of the situation in the Middle East. The US Department of Energy announced that US EIA crude oil stocks rose for four weeks last week, reaching the highest level since June.

Concerns about crude oil fundamentals overwhelm the market.Crashnitrofueledps5Concerns about the situation in the Middle East

Analysts pointed out that based on the preliminary prediction of the conflict between Iran and Israel, international crude oil prices have not changed dramatically, so traders are more concerned about the fundamentals of crude oil.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM, an oil brokerage, said traders were "giving back some of the political risk premium" because of Israel's restraint so far.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said that the situation in the Middle East has not yet led to supply disruptions, and Israel is unlikely to respond by attacking Iran's oil production or export facilities, so the impact of tensions on international oil prices will weaken and the spillover effects of the conflict have gradually been absorbed by the market.

Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview that the current geopolitical risk to oil prices is about $5 to $10 a barrel, and that if the situation does not escalate further, the upside risk to oil prices is smaller.

Daan Struyven believes that if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East does not cause supply problems, the pressure on the price of Brent crude oil will be around $90.

At the same time, data released by the US Department of Energy showed that US EIA crude oil stocks rose for four weeks last week, and the increase of more than 2.7 million barrels was more than twice that expected by analysts. Some analysts pointed out that EIA data showed insufficient demand for gasoline, with the four-week average falling to the lowest level in the same period since 2022.

Earlier, the latest monthly report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed that consumption in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was lower than expected, and factory activity was depressed and lowered.Crashnitrofueledps5Forecasts for the growth of oil demand in 2024 are made.

Global oil demand growth is currently slowing and is expected to fall to 1.2 million b / d this year and 1.1 million b / d by 2025, the IEA said in its report.

While we expect oil consumption growth of 1.2 million b / d in 2024 and 1.1 million b / d in 2025 to remain strong by historical standards, structural factors will lead to a gradual slowdown in oil demand growth for the rest of the decade. The market share of electric vehicles continues to grow rapidly, especially in China, and the fuel economy of vehicles has improved steadily.

In addition, the follow-up actions of OPEC+ will also determine the outlook of crude oil supply and affect the trend of oil prices.

Given high oil prices, it is more likely that OPEC+ will begin to cancel some of its production cuts in the third quarter, which in turn could cool the market, HSBC said in a report.

Struyven said that if OPEC+ extended existing supply restrictions after the second quarter, it would push oil prices beyond the range and higher, "in which case oil prices could break through $90 or even reach $100".